🔗 Share this article

Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have attracted tens of thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was walking away.

This differed from the communication being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other high-level figures of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and the Australian delegation – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together combat the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than the joint Pacific proposal to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under Donald Trump, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations feared a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if anything, can the federal administration do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the most promising opportunity available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.